Predicted grades for university applications are a teacher's judgement, recorded by the school or college in the UCAS reference, of the grade a student is likely to achieve in positive circumstances in qualifications not yet taken. Universities and colleges use them alongside other information, such as GCSEs, the personal statement and the reference, to decide whether to make a conditional offer. Achieved results then decide whether the place is confirmed, so the prediction informs the offer and the results settle it.
Each school or college has its own process for setting predictions, each university has its own admissions policy, and UCAS publishes the shared principles that sit behind both. Knowing those three layers lets a family in Year 12 or Year 13 ask useful questions early, such as what evidence a grade rests on, how a chosen university treats it, and what follows if results come in below an offer.
What is a predicted grade and who sets it?
A predicted grade is, in UCAS's words, the grade of qualification an applicant's school or college believes they are likely to achieve in positive circumstances. For school and college applicants, a teacher acting as referee adds predicted grades to the reference for any qualifications still pending, and the student does not see the reference. UCAS says predictions are finalised by the point an application is submitted, and they cannot be changed after sending.
UCAS asks each school or college to run its own transparent and consistent process, and suggests staff training to support consistency. It also advises that students should be told their likely predicted grades early enough to inform their course research, which makes the school's own approach, and the timing of when it shares predictions, the first things a family can ask about.
How do teachers decide a predicted grade?
Teachers decide a predicted grade through professional judgement based on demonstrable evidence of performance. UCAS says the evidence could include past performance, internal assessments or current student work, and that predictions should be achievable, objective and data-driven. Aspirational grades can motivate a student, and UCAS still asks that they rest on evidence. Predictions should also be set independently of the universities and colleges the applicant has chosen.
On the assessment side, Ofqual's guidance on collecting evidence of student performance describes mock exams taken under exam-like conditions and based on exam board materials as far as possible, and says such assessments can also inform predicted grades used externally, for example in UCAS predictions. The same guidance adds that a grade given to show how a student is performing does not indicate what the final grade will be.
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Enquire about this tutorHow do universities use predicted grades in an offer?
Universities use predicted grades as one input among several when deciding whether to make a conditional offer. UCAS lists the other inputs as prior qualifications such as GCSEs, interview performance, admissions tests, background, the personal statement and the reference, and says universities and colleges use predictions in different ways. Each should have an admissions statement or policy covering how it uses them, so the university's own admissions pages are the place to check.
Conditions on an offer are written as grades, UCAS Tariff points or required subjects, and entry requirements are set by each university and college for each course. UCAS's course search also carries historical entry grades data, showing the grade profiles of previously accepted students and offer rates, which gives a family useful context for reading the published requirements alongside a predicted grade.
What happens if a predicted grade is lower than the offer asks, and what can a student do?
A predicted grade below the grades a course asks for can affect whether a university makes an offer, since universities use predictions to help decide on a conditional offer, so the useful response is to act early. UCAS suggests students reflect on their predicted grades with their school, and that circumstances affecting performance can be recorded by the referee in section 2 of the reference, with the student's permission. The practical steps are these:
- Talk to subject teachers early and ask what evidence the predicted grade rests on and what further evidence would strengthen it.
- Ask the school or college how it makes predictions, since each centre has its own process.
- Choose a spread of courses; UCAS suggests applying for courses with higher and lower requirements, because conditions may change with applicant numbers and provider benchmarks.
- Check each university's stated approach to predicted grades and its historical entry grades data in the UCAS course search.
- Ask the university directly if a requirement is unclear, since UCAS says similar qualifications are often still considered.
What can a student do, and not do, to influence a predicted grade ethically?
A student can influence a prediction through the evidence it rests on and the information the referee holds, and cannot influence it through the choice of university or a request for a grade the evidence does not support. UCAS asks that predictions rest on demonstrable evidence of performance and be set independently of an applicant's choices, so the honest route is the quality of the work that internal assessments, mock exams and current classwork record.
UCAS also advises choosing a referee who knows the student academically, and discussing the application with them first, because the referee cannot see the application or the courses chosen. Family, friends and partners are not suitable referees. Where illness or another circumstance has affected performance, the student can ask the referee to include it, with permission. School and college applicants cannot view the reference, and predictions cannot be amended after it is sent.
How is an offer confirmed after results?
An offer is confirmed after results when UCAS matches the results it receives from awarding bodies to each application and sends them to the universities and colleges holding offers, which then check them against the conditions. A conditional offer becomes unconditional once the conditions are met, and the decision appears in the student's application. UCAS advises students to send proof of qualifications to both their firm and insurance choices as soon as results arrive.
If the conditions are not met, UCAS says the university or college may still accept the student, especially after a narrow miss, or may offer a different course, so contacting them promptly is the first step. Other routes UCAS lists include Clearing and appealing a grade; if a medical or similar problem affected results, the student should contact the university with a supporting letter from their school or college. A student released into Clearing from a pending place loses both the firm and insurance choices.
How may contextual information be used in an offer?
Where a university says so, contextual information and data are used to assess an applicant's achievements and potential in light of their educational and socio-economic background. UCAS describes some universities lowering their grade requirements, or giving extra consideration, for applicants who have faced barriers, and says contextual information can also inform support such as bursaries and outreach. Not every university does this, and the benefit varies.
Approaches differ by university: UCAS notes that Bristol flags eligible applicants automatically, that Warwick makes lower offers to eligible applicants, and that Goldsmiths considers factors such as local area, disability and care experience without deciding on them alone. A family can check whether a chosen university has a contextual admissions policy, use any online eligibility tool it provides, and ask the admissions office directly if unsure.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are predicted grades?
- UCAS defines a predicted grade as the grade of qualification an applicant's school or college believes they are likely to achieve in positive circumstances. A teacher referee adds predictions to the UCAS reference for qualifications still pending. Universities and colleges use them alongside other information, such as GCSEs and the personal statement, to decide whether to make a conditional offer. The final decision follows achieved results.
- How are predicted grades calculated?
- No single formula applies, because each school or college has its own process. UCAS says predictions should rest on demonstrable evidence, which could include past performance, internal assessments or current student work, and should reflect professional judgement. Ofqual's guidance describes mock exams under exam-like conditions as evidence that can inform predictions. Asking the school how it sets predictions is the most direct way to find out.
- Where can students see or change their predicted grades?
- UCAS says school and college applicants do not have access to the reference, which is where a teacher adds predictions, and that predictions cannot be changed after sending. UCAS advises schools to share likely predicted grades with students early enough to inform course research, so asking the school for them before applying is reasonable. Students can also discuss and reflect on their predictions with their teachers.
- Do universities only look at predicted grades?
- UCAS says universities use predicted grades with other information, including prior qualifications such as GCSEs, interview performance, admissions tests, background, the personal statement and the reference. Each university should have an admissions statement or policy covering how it uses predictions. Once achieved results arrive, universities make a final decision, so the stated policy of each chosen university is the best guide.
- What happens if a student's results come in lower than their offer?
- UCAS says the university or college may still accept a student with lower grades, or offer a place on a different course, so contacting them promptly is the first step. The decision appears in the application with instructions on what to do next. If the place is not confirmed, Clearing is the route UCAS describes for finding a course that still has places.
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